Fusion: Digital Convergence and the coming Technological Singularity

My favorite stand-up comedian is Jerry Seinfeld, and every person with a TV set should know who he is thanks to his TV show Seinfeld which shaped pop culture of the 1990's (disturbingly my life has also started to mirror said show, but I digress). In one of his latest bits, he talks about how the usage of devices like the Blackberry has hindered personal communication. My favorite line in the little segment, which can be seen here, is when he jokes about the people who look at their phones while in a conversation, an action that he equates to picking up a magazine, holding it in front of someone's face, and reading it while they are talking.

Jokes aside, Seinfeld does have a point. Look at all the features that our cell phones have today. Aside from the ability to place calls to people, which I believe was the original purpose of these devices, we can now send text messages, check our email, browse the internet, and take pictures and videos which we can send to our friends. And let's not even talk about the "apps" for our phones, which let us find movie times, get directions to places, read books, watch TV, turn the lights on and off in our homes, the list goes on and on. The amazing thing to me, is not that our phones have the capability to do all these things, but it's that we as a society actually think we need our phones to do all this stuff.

And it's not just cell phones either. It's all around us, TV, books, movies, games, every aspect of human culture is being integrated with technology. It's a process called "Digital Convergence" which is a shorthand term for various industries being merged into one conglomerate (mainly IT, Telecom, Consumer Electronics, and Entertainment). Through Digital Convergence, our society is becoming more tech oriented, and at it's current pace our world could be a very different place in just 30 years or so, in the sense that technology will not only be an essential part of our lives, but it may quite literally run our lives as well.

In this blog, we will talk about Digital Convergence, where it is happening, how it affects our lives, and how it's propelling us towards a future that the world isn't ready to believe.

As The Center for Convergence and Emerging Network Technologies says; "'Digital Convergence' refers to the profound changes in the structure of media caused by the emergence of digital technologies as the dominant method for representing, storing, and communicating information." So what does it mean? It means that thanks to advancements in technology, the way media is presented to us is changing in order to take advantage of this new tech. In my previous blog post I touched on this, saying how YouTube and Second Life were being used to promote the newest movies, and how you could watch the latest TV shows on iTunes. In a related example, most networks now put up complete episodes of their shows on their websites for viewers to watch in the event that they missed the original airing.

A good example of this is Hulu, a free online video service that operates as a joint venture of the major TV networks (NBC, FOX, ABC, etc.). It's purpose is to stream the latest episodes of TV shows, movie trailers, and even feature length films for free. It's style and presentation is similar to YouTube, but because the networks have direct control over the website, the content is restricted to only the media that is published by the networks and/or their parent companies (News Corp, GE, etc.) as well as others who have a presence on the site (such as E!, PBS, G4, etc.). Also the videos that are on the website are only available for a certain amount of time, being deleted once their time is up, so there's some corporate greed here in the sense they want you to buy their media on DVD, iTunes, or whatnot instead of watching it for free.

Here is an example of a Hulu page showing an Episode of 24. While the interface is a different style than YouTube's, it offers similar options. There's options to view the episode in a higher resolution, in a pop up window, or full screen. Also it lets you share the episode with your friends. Should you scroll down, you'll see a comments section similar to YouTube's, as well as a message board pertaining to the episode, and even some reviews.



So how is all this possible? Through ads! See the little white dashes on the progress bar at the bottom of the screen? Hulu states that for "legal reasons" they can only load the video up to that point before they go on. Conveniently ads are placed at those little sections, like the one below.

Note that it has similar viewing options, in that you can view it in a separate window or full screen. Also at the top there is a message that says "Your video will resume in seconds." As that implies, these ads cannot be fast-forwarded, they must be watched in their entirety. Also at the left side, there's buttons that say "like" and "dislike." Similar to Facebook, you can tell Hulu if you liked or disliked the ad and why.

You also can now watch Hulu on your TV. With the PlayOn software developed by MediaMall Technologies, you can use your Xbox 360 or Nintendo Wii to watch videos hosted by Hulu in your livingroom. So now you can watch streamed TV shows on...well, your TV. How's that for full circle.

Now let's talk about cell phones, perhaps the most obvious example of Digital Convergence. Everyone by now knows about the iPhone, and thus because of it's exposure (and the fact that I have an extreme hate for Apple) I won't be discussing it here. Instead we'll talk about one of it's competitors: the Palm Pre.

The Pre went on sale last June, at first it was exclusive to Sprint, although it's now sold through Verizon. The Pre is a smartphone designed to compete with the iPhone and similar devices in a variety of ways. This has been my personal cell phone for about the past year, and I am very happy with it, and in my opinion it's the best cell phone I've ever had. Personal feelings aside though, the Pre is a good example of a product taking advantage of Digitan Convergence. In addition to calling people and SMS, picture, and video messaging, the Pre is powered by an in-house developed software, called WebOS, which supports internet browsing and email sending and receiving. You also can sync the calendar on the phone to your Facebook and/or Google calendars online. Speaking of Google, Google Maps are included and are integrated to function with the Pre's built in GPS. There's also an app store similar to Apple's, which allows you to download various apps for WebOS, and while there's not as many apps for the Pre compared to the iPhone, there's many useful ones available. Finally, in the biggest advantage the Pre has over the iPhone, you can run multiple apps at the same time, so you can check your email, update your Facebook status, and talk on the phone all at once! (Good luck trying to physically pull that off though!)

Now let's be honest, do we really need the Pre to do all that for us? No. After all it is a phone, it's only obligation is to allow for you to make calls. But we live in an increasingly tech-dependent world, and being able to do several things at once on just one gadget is much more convenient than being able to do only one thing at a time on several gadgets. This is why phones like the Pre must be able to do a billion things at once in order for them to sell well. Our parents might have been okay with a phone that just lets you make calls, and maybe one that lets you send text messages, but not us. No, we want our phones to be able to do those things, as well as help us edit our report for the boss, forecast the weather, and give us the highlights from the NCAA tournament. Digital Convergence at it's finest.

Books might as well be the last safe haven. I mean we have all this information in these giant textbooks, and we'll be carrying them around with us forever. Right? Right? WRONG! Now even books are being digitized, and with the advent of electronic readers, like the Kindle from Amazon, literature is now faster and easier to access and transport. Even entire libraries are going online, with projects like the ambitious Michigan Digitization Project, a joint venture between U of M and Google, which aims to digitize the entire collection of the University Library. Now students won't even have to go to the library to check out a book, they can just hop on their computers and download it.

It's really no surprise that readers have come along. One of the inconveniences of academic life is that we have to carry around so many books that it's a workout just taking our backpacks from one class to another. When I was in Junior High even, I would nearly throw out my back (which is already suffering from scoliosis) due to the sheer weight of books I had to carry. Readers, like the Kindle, could have made all that unnecessary, in the sense that if there were digital copies of them, I could just download them to my Kindle, and I could carry that around with me instead of 10 books. Take a look at this picture (taken by my Palm Pre); on the left is one of the books for this class, on the right is my personal Kindle with the same book loaded, and other books for this class and others stored in its memory banks. Which one do you think I'll carry around?

Okay, so it's 2010, and we live in a technologically advanced world. However some would say that it's not advanced enough. The late, great, Sir Arthur C. Clarke seemed to think that by this time, we would actually be way beyond what we are at now. Clarke is known best perhaps for the Space Odyssey series of books, of which the first, 2001: A Space Odyssey, is perhaps the best known. The sequel for 2001, titled 2010: Odyssey Two, takes place in the year 2010. One of the hallmarks of the Space Odyssey series is the predictions in technological evolution. Indeed some predictions made by Clarke (and Stanley Kubrick who directed the film adaptation of 2001) have come true. We do have flat-screen TV's, credit cards, glass cockpits for airplanes, and computers that have some basic artificial intelligence, as well as being able to synthesize voice. However we do not yet have bases on the Moon, or giant spaceships that can travel to other planets, or sinister computers that try to kill you (thankfully!).

But at the rate technology is evolving, it's likely that all the predictions made in 2001, 2010, and in the other stories of the series will be realized. In fact in just 30 years our world could be changed drastically, as by 2045 the evolution of our tech is expected to reach an exciting and terrifying climax: the Technological Singularity.

The Technological Singularity is a hypothesis which states that because technology is evolving so fast, it is impossible to accurately predict the future as it will be radically different from today. More specifically it refers to the theory that while development of new tech has only been determined by the intelligence of the human brain, in the near future it is very possible (almost inevitable) that an AI will be developed that is superior to human intelligence, and thus the AI will develop a better AI and so on. In other words, technology will literally take over our lives.

A key piece of evidence for the Singularity hypothesis is "Moore's law", a diagram of which is shown on the left. Moore's law, developed by Gordon E. Moore the co-founder of Intel, states that the processing power of computers doubles about every 2 years. This is a trend that is responsible for the usage of digital tech in all aspects of society, as well as Digital Convergence. The trend, which is expected to continue until at least 2015, is used by those who support the Singularity hypothesis as an example of tech evolving at an exponential rate, to the extent that technology will inevitably surpass humans.


One of those who support the Singularity hypothesis is Raymond Kurzweil, who wrote a book entitled The Singularity is Near which gives his predictions for the future. I agree with most of the predictions he lists, and I'll summarize them here, as they help shape my vision of the world we will come to know in our lifetime.

By the end of this year, Kurzweil predicts that we will have computers with the raw power of the human brain, but an AI of that level will still be a way off. Computers will start to "disappear" in the sense that they will become more integrated with everyday objects (like clothing), and full-immersion AV virtual reality will exist. As we proceed through the decade cell phones will also become more integrated, possibly being built into clothing. High-speed internet will be available everywhere, and household cleaning robots (possibly descendants of the Roomba) will be commonplace. One of the more promising inventions would be VR glasses that could beam images directly onto the retina, and contain earbuds to project sound. This could be used as a new medium of advertising, as well as acting as a personal assistant with many useful functions (like language translation). By 2018 10 Terabits of PC memory (about the equivalent of the brain) will be avalible for $1,000. And by 2020, computers will have the raw processing power of the brain, but still lack a "strong" AI.

Throughout the 2020's and 2030's, nanomachines will be introduced for medical uses. They will be able to provide accurate brain scans, as well as enter the bloodstream and "feed" cells. This will eliminate the need for normal food consumption (eating and drinking) and essentially make humans "cyborgs." When nanotech manufacturing comes into play, products will be produced for a fraction of the costs it would take to produce them traditionally, which will radically alter the economy. Also with the proper advancements in nanotech, the threat posed by biological diseases will be all but eliminated.

Most importantly, by 2029 a computer will pass the Turing Test, making it the first "strong AI" even though it would only be as intelligent as, say, a child. Also virtual reality will be so advanced that it would be impossible to distinguish it from reality (sound familiar?).

With a developing neural-nanomachine interface, it will be possible to create a virtual reality without the need of external equipment. Also in addition to telepathic communication, people could share experiences in real time, and "upload" their memories and even their entire mind. By 2040 humans will be so integrated with cybernetics that the human body will no longer have a corporeal state, people will spend most of their time in their own personal virtual reality (akin to The Matrix), and society will drift apart. By 2045 computers will be a billion times more powerful than the human brain, and Artificially Intelligent machines will become the dominant "life forms" on the Earth, thinking and communicating so fast that humans cannot even begin to perceive what is happening. Evolution of technology will now be run by machines, with each generation more powerful than the last, as machines literally dominate the world. This is the Singularity.

The Singularity will be disruptive and world-altering, but don't despair. Despite the fact that machines will literally rule over humans, a violent extermination of man is extremely unlikely, mostly due to the fact that thanks to nanotech developments, there will no longer be any distinction between man and machine. The disruption comes from the knowledge that this "new order" will be resisted by renegade factions of mankind, but their overall impact on the evolution of technology will be little to no effect, as it is likely that machines will have countermeasures enacted against their methods before long.

Now there's no guarantee that this will all happen in the way that me and Kurzweil are predicting it will, as I've said before there's no way to accurately predict the future. But based on the development of technology, I'd say that the Singularity is inevitable. Even today we are already starting on the path towards it through Digital Convergence. Now sure we're not plugged into The Matrix (we think), but based on our VR research, that will eventually come to pass as well. Hopefully it will be by choice, and not because the machines are using us as batteries! Either way the evidence is clear that thanks to the evolution of tech and Digital Convergence, we are becoming a more "technocratic" society, and very soon technology will not only be a convenience, but an essential part of our lives.

And when the Singularity does come, it will either be a glorious new age for man and machine, or it will be a hellish dystopia. Depending on your point of view.

Sites used for Reference:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_convergence

http://dcc.syr.edu/index.php

http://www.hulu.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hulu

http://www.palm.com/us/products/phones/pre/index.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palm_Pre (Picture licensed through Creative Commons)

http://www.lib.umich.edu/michigan-digitization-project

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001:_A_Space_Odyssey_%28film%29#Imagining_the_future

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_Law (Picture licensed through Creative Commons)

http://www.irobot.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test

All pictures are licensed through creative commons